VVV-Venlo 3-2 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.79
2-3 Goals
37%
2.04
4-5 Goals
29%
2.58
6+ Goals
12%
5.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.05
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.2
X/1
12%
4.28
X/2
13%
9.85
X/X
15%
6.58
2/1
8%
19.25
2/2
8%
6.36
2/X
6%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.2pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.7pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 25%
-13% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +15%
1.40/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.63
-28% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
386 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
23.2 Crosses 11.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY PSV II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.94 xG 1.13
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 Passes 409
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2023 PSV II PSV II 0-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
23.01.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-2 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
16.09.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
14.01.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-4 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
01.10.2021 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
06.02.2017 PSV II PSV II 2-1 HT 2-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
3-2
AWAY PSV II
3.23 xG 2.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
282 Passes 387
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo squeezed past PSV II 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had VVV-Venlo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 44% of the ball to PSV II's 56%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 3.23 to 2.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VVV-Venlo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV II led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.67 for PSV II.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs PSV II?

VVV-Venlo 3-2 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 47%, draw 26%, PSV II 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VVV-Venlo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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