Portsmouth 2-1 Oxford United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.31
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
11%
4.0
X/2
11%
8.83
X/X
11%
4.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.45
2/2
11%
6.95
2/X
6%
15.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford United EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.52/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.32
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
281 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 69%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
23.3 Crosses 13.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Oxford United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
290 Passes 281
69% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.01.2024 Oxford United Oxford United 2-2 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
18.04.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 1-1 HT 1-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
25.10.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
01.03.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 3-2 HT 2-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
05.02.2022 Oxford United Oxford United 3-2 HT 1-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
23.02.2021 Oxford United Oxford United 0-1 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
2-1
AWAY Oxford United
0.80 xG 1.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
269 Passes 281
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Oxford United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth nicked a narrow win over Oxford United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Portsmouth as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Portsmouth had 50% of the ball to Oxford United's 50%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.80 to 1.81 — on chances, Oxford United could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portsmouth had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Portsmouth and 1.50 for Oxford United.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Oxford United?

Portsmouth 2-1 Oxford United in the England - 1st Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Oxford United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 48%, draw 24%, Oxford United 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portsmouth), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portsmouth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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