Birmingham 3-4 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 2 Mar 2024

Birmingham
3-4 HT 2-1
Southampton
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Birmingham vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.43
Over 2.5
52%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.33
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.95
1/2
6%
20.05
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.05
X/1
8%
9.09
X/2
16%
4.41
X/X
8%
6.19
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.2
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · 1/X at 14.05 — our 11% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-4.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.4pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 57%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.06/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/1.12
-7% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -20%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
241 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 81%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 42.4
18.5 Crosses 18.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Birmingham vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Southampton
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.60 xG 2.29
29% Ball Possession 71%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
252 Passes 733
81% Pass Accuracy 92%
15 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Southampton Southampton 3-1 HT 2-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
04.02.2012 Birmingham Birmingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
18.09.2011 Southampton Southampton 4-1 HT 3-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
25.08.2009 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNLK
07.03.2009 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
26.08.2008 Southampton Southampton 2-0 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNLK

Birmingham 3-4 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
3-4
AWAY Southampton
0.81 xG 2.39
22% Ball Possession 78%
12 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 16
133 Passes 665
66% Pass Accuracy 90%
17 Box Touches 64
12 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southampton edged past Birmingham 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Southampton as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Birmingham had 22% of the ball to Southampton's 78%, shots finished 12-26, expected goals 0.81 to 2.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Southampton's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Birmingham and 1.67 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Southampton?

Birmingham 3-4 Southampton in the England - Championship on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 25%, draw 26%, Southampton 49%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southampton), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
2 Mar 2024
15:30 Bristol City vs Cardiff City Analysis →
15:30 Huddersfield Town vs Leeds United Analysis →
18:00 Norwich City vs Sunderland Analysis →
18:00 Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →
18:00 Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Analysis →
18:00 Millwall vs Watford Analysis →