Palermo 1-0 Brescia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.94
6+ Goals
10%
18.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
11%
4.29
X/2
11%
8.6
X/X
13%
4.39
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
7.12
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Brescia EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.70/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.41
-5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
25.0 Crosses 18.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Brescia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 0.88
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
338 Passes 335
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.08.2024 Brescia Brescia 1-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
02.03.2024 Brescia Brescia 4-2 HT 4-2 Palermo Palermo İTB
08.11.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-0 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
19.05.2023 Palermo Palermo 2-2 HT 2-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
26.12.2022 Brescia Brescia 1-1 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
15.02.2019 Palermo Palermo 1-1 HT 0-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
1-0
AWAY Brescia
2.43 xG 0.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
26 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 6
331 Passes 252
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
47 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Brescia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo squeezed past Brescia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palermo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Palermo had 54% of the ball to Brescia's 46%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 2.43 to 0.60 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palermo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brescia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Palermo and 1.50 for Brescia.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Brescia?

Palermo 1-0 Brescia in the Italy - Serie B on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Brescia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Palermo 45%, draw 28%, Brescia 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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