Minnesota United 1-0 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
2.89
6+ Goals
13%
8.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.77
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.5
X/1
16%
3.96
X/2
7%
12.95
X/X
11%
6.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.2
2/2
7%
10.55
2/X
7%
18.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
64%
-10.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.6pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+5.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.77/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.81
+0% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
405 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.1 Crosses 14.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
3W-0D-1L
AWAY CF Montreal
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.48 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
324 Passes 391
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.06.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 4-0 HT 2-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
07.07.2019 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-3 HT 2-2 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
27.05.2018 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-0 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
17.09.2017 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-3 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
1-0
AWAY CF Montreal
1.63 xG 0.16
35% Ball Possession 65%
14 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 5
238 Passes 483
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 9
9 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United edged past CF Montreal 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Minnesota United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Minnesota United had 35% of the ball to CF Montreal's 65%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 1.63 to 0.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Minnesota United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Minnesota United had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Minnesota United and 2.00 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs CF Montreal?

Minnesota United 1-0 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 54%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Minnesota United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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