Sporting Kansas City 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 2 Mar 2025

Sporting Kansas City
1-2 HT 1-2
San Jose Earthquakes
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.15
Over 2.5
63%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
8.48
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.85 — our 29% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.6
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.1
X/1
10%
4.95
X/2
9%
7.89
X/X
11%
5.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.1
2/2
14%
5.4
2/X
5%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.4pp
37%
Under 2.5
43%
-5.5pp
63%
Over 2.5
57%
+5.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.9pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Kansas City v San Jose Earthquakes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -20%
1.57/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.82
+12% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
383 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
19.9 Crosses 16.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Kansas City
4W-1D-1L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.99 xG 1.21
52% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
447 Passes 384
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.07.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
17.03.2024 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-1 HT 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
26.10.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 0-0 HT 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
27.08.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 3-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
16.04.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 HT 2-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
28.08.2022 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD

Sporting Kansas City 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Kansas City
1-2
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.74 xG 1.61
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
574 Passes 246
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Jose Earthquakes edged past Sporting Kansas City 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Kansas City at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 68% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 32%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.74 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 0.83 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Sporting Kansas City 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 46%, draw 24%, San Jose Earthquakes 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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