Orlando City 4-2 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.16
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.55
X/1
15%
4.34
X/2
7%
9.76
X/X
8%
5.23
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
13%
7.59
2/X
8%
15.15
Value flag · 1/X at 13.55 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
55%
-10.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.78/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.76
+1% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
20.3 Crosses 11.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Toronto FC
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.63 xG 0.77
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
387 Passes 430
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.07.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 1-2 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
28.04.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 1-2 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
22.10.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
05.07.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 4-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
18.09.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 4-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
14.05.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
4-2
AWAY Toronto FC
1.56 xG 0.38
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
389 Passes 503
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 7
8 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City saw off Toronto FC 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Orlando City had 44% of the ball to Toronto FC's 56%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 1.56 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Orlando City and 0.50 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Toronto FC?

Orlando City 4-2 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 44%, draw 28%, Toronto FC 27%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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