Toronto FC 1-2 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
12%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.4pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.33/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.23
-8% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 81%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
14.4 Crosses 15.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Orlando City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.53 xG 1.64
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
421 Passes 393
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 1-2 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
22.10.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
05.07.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 4-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
18.09.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 4-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
14.05.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
18.07.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-2
AWAY Orlando City
1.48 xG 1.34
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
477 Passes 352
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City squeezed past Toronto FC 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Orlando City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Toronto FC had 57% of the ball to Orlando City's 43%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.48 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Toronto FC and 2.17 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Orlando City?

Toronto FC 1-2 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 40%, draw 27%, Orlando City 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toronto FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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