Orlando City 1-2 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.47
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.82
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.55
X/1
15%
3.61
X/2
7%
12.75
X/X
10%
5.98
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.7
2/2
9%
10.15
2/X
6%
18.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-7.5pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.1pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.82/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.90
+12% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
17.3 Crosses 11.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Toronto FC
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.57 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
392 Passes 423
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
05.07.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 4-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
18.09.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 4-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
14.05.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
18.07.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
20.06.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-3 HT 2-2 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
1-2
AWAY Toronto FC
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
424 Passes 454
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC nicked a narrow win over Orlando City 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Orlando City at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Orlando City had 48% of the ball to Toronto FC's 52%, shots finished 8-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Orlando City and 0.50 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Toronto FC?

Orlando City 1-2 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 56%, draw 22%, Toronto FC 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Orlando City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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