New England Revolution 1-4 Inter Miami — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.59
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.81
2-3 Goals
37%
2.04
4-5 Goals
23%
2.61
6+ Goals
14%
5.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.01
1/2
6%
21.85
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
8%
6.81
X/2
12%
5.34
X/X
11%
6.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
21%
2.87
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
33%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.7pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-13.5pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter Miami EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.57/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.77
-19% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
18.3 Crosses 14.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Inter Miami
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.77 xG 0.88
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
460 Passes 313
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.06.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 3-1 HT 2-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
14.05.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 2-1 HT 2-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
01.05.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-0 HT 1-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
09.04.2022 Inter Miami Inter Miami 3-2 HT 2-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
07.11.2021 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-1 HT 0-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
22.07.2021 Inter Miami Inter Miami 0-5 HT 0-4 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
1-4
AWAY Inter Miami
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
424 Passes 550
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs Inter Miami
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter Miami ran out comfortable winners over New England Revolution 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Inter Miami made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 45% of the ball to Inter Miami's 55%, shots finished 7-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for New England Revolution and 1.17 for Inter Miami.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Inter Miami?

New England Revolution 1-4 Inter Miami in the USA - Major League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs Inter Miami?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter Miami win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 33%, draw 27%, Inter Miami 39%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter Miami), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Inter Miami) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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