DC United 2-3 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.5pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.51/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.42
+7% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 77%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
19.3 Crosses 13.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.51 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
300 Passes 323
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
25.06.2023 DC United DC United 3-0 HT 3-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
07.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-1 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
09.10.2022 DC United DC United 2-5 HT 1-4 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
06.03.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
26.09.2021 DC United DC United 4-2 HT 3-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
2-3
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.14 xG 1.28
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
251 Passes 315
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH DC United vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past DC United 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, DC United had 47% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 53%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.14 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, DC United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for DC United and 1.50 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of DC United vs FC Cincinnati?

DC United 2-3 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split DC United 31%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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