Philadelphia Union 4-1 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.7
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
10%
5.99
X/2
15%
5.86
X/X
12%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
14%
3.58
2/X
6%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.56/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.42
-23% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
19.8 Crosses 12.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.14 xG 1.82
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
297 Passes 437
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
14.08.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-4 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union CONLK
20.06.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-3 HT 1-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
26.11.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
17.09.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-2 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
09.04.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
4-1
AWAY FC Cincinnati
3.20 xG 1.12
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
409 Passes 368
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union cruised past FC Cincinnati 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Philadelphia Union made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 53% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 47%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 3.20 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Philadelphia Union and 2.00 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?

Philadelphia Union 4-1 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 39%, draw 26%, FC Cincinnati 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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