Philadelphia Union 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Oct 2024

Philadelphia Union
1-2 HT 1-1
FC Cincinnati
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
USA - Major League – 2024

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.43
No
43%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.69
2-3 Goals
41%
2.03
4-5 Goals
23%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.52
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
8%
4.86
X/2
13%
7.75
X/X
14%
6.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
20.6
2/2
11%
4.78
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 14% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
66%
-8.3pp
43%
BTTS No
34%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +30%
1.89/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.57
+6% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
19.7 Crosses 11.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.32 xG 1.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
288 Passes 413
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.08.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-4 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union CONLK
20.06.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-3 HT 1-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
26.11.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
17.09.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-2 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
09.04.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
21.10.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD

Philadelphia Union 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
0.81 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
303 Passes 458
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati edged past Philadelphia Union 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 43% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 57%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.81 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.67 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?

Philadelphia Union 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 43%, draw 25%, FC Cincinnati 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Philadelphia Union) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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