FC Cincinnati 4-3 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Jun 2024

📅20/06/2024 · 🕒02:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
32%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.05
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 27% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
14.3
X/1
19%
4.11
X/2
8%
9.39
X/X
8%
5.52
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.84
2/X
8%
14.9
Value flag · 2/2 at 6.84 — our 18% vs market 10.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
55%
-13.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+11.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +31%
1.68/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.41
-10% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +43%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
14.1 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.44 xG 1.34
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 Passes 277
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
17.09.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-2 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
09.04.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
21.10.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
07.08.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
19.06.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
4-3
AWAY Philadelphia Union
2.21 xG 1.19
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
432 Passes 329
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Philadelphia Union 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 54% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 46%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.21 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Cincinnati and 0.83 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?

FC Cincinnati 4-3 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 41%, draw 27%, Philadelphia Union 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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