Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Jun 2024

📅20/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.58
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 29% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.63
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
19%
4.53
X/2
11%
7.62
X/X
13%
4.81
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
11%
5.49
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.59/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.15
+4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +40%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
15.3 Crosses 17.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Nashville SC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
427 Passes 422
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
11.06.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
09.04.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
07.08.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 3-4 HT 2-2 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
19.09.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
02.08.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-2
AWAY Nashville SC
2.03 xG 0.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
441 Passes 416
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC edged past Toronto FC 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Toronto FC at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 51% of the ball to Nashville SC's 49%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.03 to 0.82 — on chances, Toronto FC could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toronto FC had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toronto FC and 1.33 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 44%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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