Albirex Niigata 2-2 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.52
6+ Goals
9%
24.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.56
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
14%
5.13
X/2
14%
6.04
X/X
12%
3.85
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
17%
4.59
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
39%
-6.5pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.9pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+7.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.08/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.30
-16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
447 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
19.0 Crosses 17.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.27 xG 0.81
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
499 Passes 397
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.07.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
07.04.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
03.12.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
18.02.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
02.12.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.07.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
2-2
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
2.20 xG 1.01
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
327 Passes 453
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata and Cerezo Osaka shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 44% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 56%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.20 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Albirex Niigata and 0.83 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Cerezo Osaka?

Albirex Niigata 2-2 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 33%, draw 29%, Cerezo Osaka 39%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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