Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.76
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
16%
4.5
X/2
8%
7.31
X/X
10%
4.47
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.48
2/X
10%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.30/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.39
-7% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
20.8 Crosses 14.8
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.70 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
384 Passes 481
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
03.12.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
18.02.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
02.12.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.07.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JPK
04.06.2017 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 4-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-2
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.14 xG 2.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
406 Passes 401
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 35
17 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cerezo Osaka at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 50% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 50%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 1.14 to 2.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata?

Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 43%, draw 28%, Albirex Niigata 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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