Machida Zelvia 1-2 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 26% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.8
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
13%
5.05
X/2
11%
7.17
X/X
14%
5.26
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
11%
4.6
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.8pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 33%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
1.45/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.66
+51% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
19.6 Crosses 18.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
15.06.2024 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 1-3 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
12.07.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 1-4 HT 0-2 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-2
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
0.52 xG 1.72
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
222 Passes 381
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 20
31 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yokohama F. Marinos edged past Machida Zelvia 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 41% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 59%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.52 to 1.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Yokohama F. Marinos's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.00 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Machida Zelvia 1-2 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 44%, draw 28%, Yokohama F. Marinos 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5
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