Vissel Kobe 3-3 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.75
6+ Goals
10%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.6
X/1
20%
3.81
X/2
12%
9.52
X/X
8%
4.95
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
8%
7.73
2/X
6%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vissel Kobe EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.73/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.07
+7% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
338 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.8 Crosses 17.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vissel Kobe
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.38 xG 1.36
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 Passes 324
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
03.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-2 HT 0-1 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
25.11.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 2-1 HT 2-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
24.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JLK
03.05.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-2 HT 0-1 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
08.03.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 0-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
10.09.2022 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vissel Kobe
3-3
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.76 xG 1.62
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
253 Passes 166
70% Pass Accuracy 59%
26 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vissel Kobe and Nagoya Grampus shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Vissel Kobe at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Vissel Kobe had 58% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 42%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.76 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vissel Kobe had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vissel Kobe and 0.83 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus?

Vissel Kobe 3-3 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vissel Kobe win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Vissel Kobe 52%, draw 23%, Nagoya Grampus 25%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vissel Kobe)
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