Kashiwa Reysol 2-3 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Jul 2024

Kashiwa Reysol
2-3 HT 1-2
Kawasaki Frontale
📅20/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.95
6+ Goals
13%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.24
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.44
X/2
16%
6.15
X/X
7%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.45
2/2
13%
3.86
2/X
10%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -21%
1.27/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.34
-17% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
374 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 80%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
18.6 Crosses 16.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.14
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
310 Passes 487
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.05.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-1 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
09.12.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 0-0 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JPK
29.10.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
28.05.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-0 HT 2-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
17.09.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
09.04.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP

Kashiwa Reysol 2-3 Kawasaki Frontale — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2-3
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.73 xG 2.40
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 9
277 Passes 373
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kawasaki Frontale edged past Kashiwa Reysol 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Kawasaki Frontale found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 44% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 56%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.73 to 2.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.00 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Kashiwa Reysol 2-3 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 38%, draw 26%, Kawasaki Frontale 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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