Pumas UNAM 0-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
24%
3.87
6+ Goals
8%
18.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.7pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.26/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.08
-22% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
16.6 Crosses 17.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 0.88
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 Passes 291
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
25.02.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
04.12.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-0 HT 2-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
01.12.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
12.11.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
19.02.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
0-1
AWAY Guadalajara
0.90 xG 0.52
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 12
258 Passes 421
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
6 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara nicked a narrow win over Pumas UNAM 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Guadalajara found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 39% of the ball to Guadalajara's 61%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.90 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.00 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara?

Pumas UNAM 0-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 32%, draw 30%, Guadalajara 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
2 Mar 2025
02:00 FC Juarez vs Pachuca Analysis →
02:00 Club America vs Toluca Analysis →
04:00 Necaxa vs Tigres UANL Analysis →
04:00 Leon vs Tijuana Analysis →