Club America 3-0 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.94
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 25% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.9pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club America EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.46/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.43
-10% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
294 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 81%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
17.7 Crosses 14.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club America
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Toluca
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.11 xG 1.22
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
346 Passes 432
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2024 Toluca Toluca 0-2 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
28.11.2024 Club America Club America 2-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
10.11.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-0 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
14.04.2024 Club America Club America 5-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
24.09.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-1 Club America Club America MEK
15.01.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 2-1 Club America Club America MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club America
3-0
AWAY Toluca
1.41 xG 0.74
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 11
332 Passes 489
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Club America vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America cruised past Toluca 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Club America as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Club America had 41% of the ball to Toluca's 59%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.41 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Club America and 1.33 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Club America vs Toluca?

Club America 3-0 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club America vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Club America 42%, draw 24%, Toluca 34%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Club America), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Club America) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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