Leon 2-1 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 2 Mar 2025

Leon
2-1 HT 1-1
Tijuana
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.65
6+ Goals
11%
6.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.3pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.63/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.74
-3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
20.6 Crosses 15.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Tijuana
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 1.19
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 Passes 349
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
31.08.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
04.03.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
24.09.2023 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
22.04.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
03.10.2022 Leon Leon 2-2 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
16.01.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-1
AWAY Tijuana
1.68 xG 0.93
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
302 Passes 399
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leon vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon squeezed past Tijuana 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Leon as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Leon had 44% of the ball to Tijuana's 56%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.68 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Leon and 1.00 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Leon vs Tijuana?

Leon 2-1 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Leon 54%, draw 25%, Tijuana 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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