Necaxa 1-2 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
10.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-0.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 39%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
1.21/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.13
-2% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
20.5 Crosses 19.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Tigres UANL
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.69 xG 1.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
279 Passes 434
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
21.04.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 5-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
21.08.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-3 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
04.03.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
09.10.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
28.08.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-2
AWAY Tigres UANL
0.83 xG 2.11
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
274 Passes 340
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL squeezed past Necaxa 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Tigres UANL made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Necaxa had 45% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 55%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 0.83 to 2.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tigres UANL's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Necaxa and 2.00 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?

Necaxa 1-2 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 39%, draw 26%, Tigres UANL 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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