Newcastle United 2-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.12
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.9
X/1
13%
4.51
X/2
10%
9.9
X/X
12%
6.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.1
2/2
13%
7.08
2/X
6%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+8.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
2.24/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.47
+18% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
36.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.1 Crosses 14.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Brentford
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.82 xG 1.37
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.12.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-1 HT 2-0 Brentford Brentford İNLK
07.12.2024 Brentford Brentford 4-2 HT 2-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.05.2024 Brentford Brentford 2-4 HT 0-3 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
16.09.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
08.04.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
08.10.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 5-1 HT 2-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
2-1
AWAY Brentford
1.29 xG 1.60
48% Ball Possession 52%
21 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
304 Passes 329
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 38
9 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United nicked a narrow win over Brentford 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Newcastle United had 48% of the ball to Brentford's 52%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.29 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Newcastle United and 1.50 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Brentford?

Newcastle United 2-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 47%, draw 24%, Brentford 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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