Moreirense 3-2 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.39
2-3 Goals
44%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
4.39
6+ Goals
7%
23.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+2.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.06/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.35
-16% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
257 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
16.3 Crosses 21.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Estrela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.15 xG 0.99
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
320 Passes 284
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.12.2025 Estrela Estrela 0-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
02.03.2025 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
28.09.2024 Estrela Estrela 2-1 HT 2-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
07.04.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 2-2 HT 2-0 Estrela Estrela POR
11.11.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
06.05.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
3-2
AWAY Estrela
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
495 Passes 207
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
FAQ Moreirense vs Estrela
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Moreirense edged past Estrela 3-2 in the Portugal - Premier League on 2 May 2026. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 43% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Moreirense had 66% of the ball to Estrela's 34%, shots finished 14-10.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense have the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Moreirense and 1.17 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Estrela?

Moreirense 3-2 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 34%, draw 27%, Estrela 39%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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