Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
21%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.69
2-3 Goals
35%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.7
6+ Goals
13%
7.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.25
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1 EV+ ✓
29%
4.55
X/2
7%
8.68
X/X
7%
6.07
2/1
7%
19.8
2/2
10%
6.02
2/X
7%
14.45
Value flag · X/1 at 4.55 — our 29% vs market 17.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
53%
+3.6pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
2.11/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.36
+4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
23.7 Crosses 17.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Başakşehir FK
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.31 xG 0.66
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
380 Passes 275
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.12.2025 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
09.05.2025 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-4 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
15.12.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-1 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
24.01.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
28.09.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-0 HT 3-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
11.06.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 2-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
3-1
AWAY Başakşehir FK
2.62 xG 1.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
22 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
331 Passes 358
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
40 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe got the better of Başakşehir FK 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 49% of the ball to Başakşehir FK's 51%, shots finished 22-15, expected goals 2.62 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.50 for Başakşehir FK.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir FK?

Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir FK in the Turkey - Super League on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Başakşehir FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 57%, draw 23%, Başakşehir FK 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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