Athlone Town 3-3 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 2 Aug 2024

📅02/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.95
Over 2.5
35%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.9
No
63%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
3.39
6+ Goals
8%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 35% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-9.1pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.2pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
48%
+17.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
52%
-17.2pp
37%
BTTS Yes
49%
-12.0pp
63%
BTTS No
51%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athlone Town EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 19%
-19% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -9%
1.77/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.69
-7% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athlone Town
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Kerry
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Kerry 1-2 HT 1-1 Athlone Town Athlone Town İR1
08.03.2024 Athlone Town Athlone Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
15.09.2023 Athlone Town Athlone Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Kerry İR1
09.06.2023 Kerry 0-1 HT 0-1 Athlone Town Athlone Town İR1
24.03.2023 Kerry 0-1 HT 0-0 Athlone Town Athlone Town İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athlone Town
3-3
AWAY Kerry
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Athlone Town vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athlone Town and Kerry couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Athlone Town at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athlone Town had 53% of the ball to Kerry's 47%, shots finished 12-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Athlone Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Athlone Town and 0.60 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Athlone Town vs Kerry?

Athlone Town 3-3 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athlone Town vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athlone Town win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Athlone Town 53%, draw 29%, Kerry 17%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Athlone Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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