Swarovski Tirol 4-2 Hartberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 2 Aug 2025

📅02/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.81
No
42%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.97
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.04
6+ Goals
12%
18.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.04 — our 25% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.18
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.98
X/2
9%
6.53
X/X
13%
4.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
27.5
2/2
20%
4.85
2/X
6%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-7.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+7.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+6.2pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartberg EU Bookmakers 33%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +20%
1.57/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.51
+14% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
273 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
15.7 Crosses 17.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Hartberg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.84 xG 1.47
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
278 Passes 381
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2025 Hartberg Hartberg 3-2 HT 0-1 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
05.04.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-3 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
09.02.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
26.09.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
03.03.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-0 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
07.10.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 3-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swarovski Tirol
4-2
AWAY Hartberg
2.13 xG 0.31
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
356 Passes 201
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 5
26 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swarovski Tirol beat Hartberg 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Swarovski Tirol made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Swarovski Tirol had 56% of the ball to Hartberg's 44%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 2.13 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hartberg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 1.67 for Hartberg.

What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

Swarovski Tirol 4-2 Hartberg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 02/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swarovski Tirol win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 39%, draw 25%, Hartberg 35%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swarovski Tirol), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Swarovski Tirol) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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