Bragantino 2-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Sep 2024

Bragantino
2-1 HT 0-0
Bahia
📅02/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bragantino vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.92
6+ Goals
8%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 34% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.22
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
12%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.84
X/2
9%
6.2
X/X
10%
4.35
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
18%
4.56
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.4pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bragantino v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.21/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.38
+0% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.4 Crosses 16.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bragantino vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 0.80
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
356 Passes 267
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.05.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
20.08.2023 Bahia Bahia 4-0 HT 2-0 Bragantino BR1
16.04.2023 Bragantino 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
19.09.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
06.06.2021 Bragantino 3-3 HT 1-2 Bahia Bahia BR1
21.11.2020 Bragantino 4-0 HT 3-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bragantino 2-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
2-1
AWAY Bahia
1.04 xG 0.77
30% Ball Possession 70%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
193 Passes 549
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino edged past Bahia 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Bragantino found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bragantino had 30% of the ball to Bahia's 70%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.04 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bragantino and 1.67 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Bahia?

Bragantino 2-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 38%, draw 28%, Bahia 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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