Once Caldas 4-0 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 2 Oct 2025

📅02/10/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.16
No
46%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+2.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
22%
Away Win
22%
-0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
42%
+11.8pp
46%
BTTS No
58%
-11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 25%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.42/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.53
-72% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
268 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 1.05
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
299 Passes 259
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.08.2025 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOLK
19.05.2025 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
15.10.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
31.03.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
30.08.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
14.03.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas cruised past Deportivo Pasto 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Once Caldas and 1.00 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?

Once Caldas 4-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Cup on 02/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 53%, draw 25%, Deportivo Pasto 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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