Beijing Guoan 1-1 Henan Jianye — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 2 Nov 2024

📅02/11/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
7.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.0
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
20%
4.06
X/2
9%
10.6
X/X
9%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.65
2/2
11%
7.47
2/X
6%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.6pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.1pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Henan Jianye EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.34/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.58
+47% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
352 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
24.1 Crosses 13.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beijing Guoan
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Henan Jianye
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.37 xG 1.21
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
321 Passes 247
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.06.2024 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 2-1 HT 0-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
04.08.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 3-1 HT 2-1 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİN
05.05.2023 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 0-1 HT 0-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
04.11.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-1 HT 1-0 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİN
07.08.2022 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 3-0 HT 2-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
27.07.2019 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 1-0 HT 1-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beijing Guoan
1-1
AWAY Henan Jianye
1.39 xG 1.28
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
455 Passes 304
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 42
30 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Beijing Guoan at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Beijing Guoan had 58% of the ball to Henan Jianye's 42%, shots finished 17-20, expected goals 1.39 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.33 for Henan Jianye.

What was the final score of Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?

Beijing Guoan 1-1 Henan Jianye in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Beijing Guoan 53%, draw 22%, Henan Jianye 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Beijing Guoan), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ÇİNSL More China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League
2 Nov 2024
00:00 Qingdao Jonoon vs Cangzhou Mighty Lions Analysis →
10:30 Shandong Taishan vs Meizhou Hakka Analysis →
10:30 Changchun YaTai vs Zhejiang G. FC Analysis →
10:30 Shenzhen FC vs Nantong Zhiyun Analysis →
10:30 Chengdu Qianbao vs Shanghai Shenhua Analysis →
10:30 Shanghai Port vs Tianjin Teda Analysis →