Aucas vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aucas v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Aucas vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Aucas
EKV1
0-2
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
Aucas 3-3 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Aucas and El Nacional shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
This one beat our numbers. Aucas carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Aucas had 41% of the ball to El Nacional's 59%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.34 to 1.61.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aucas and 1.33 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Aucas vs El Nacional?
Aucas 3-3 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 02/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aucas vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Aucas 56%, draw 25%, El Nacional 19%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.