Mönchengladbach 1-2 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 2 Dec 2025

Mönchengladbach
1-2 HT 0-1
St. Pauli
📅02/12/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2025/2026

Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.86
Over 2.5
56%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.82
No
41%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.21
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.54
6+ Goals
13%
14.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 26% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.3
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
12%
4.37
X/2
8%
9.42
X/X
13%
4.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.45
2/2
15%
7.56
2/X
8%
15.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
50%
-6.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
50%
+6.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
51%
+8.3pp
41%
BTTS No
49%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mönchengladbach v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
2.55/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.10
+49% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.1 Crosses 12.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 4.3

Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
3W-1D-2L
AWAY St. Pauli
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.75 xG 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
445 Passes 454
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.11.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-4 HT 0-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
06.04.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
24.11.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
10.08.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-4 HT 1-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AFK
12.02.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 1-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
22.09.2010 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1

Mönchengladbach 1-2 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
1-2
AWAY St. Pauli
1.81 xG 0.77
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 0
486 Passes 537
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli nicked a narrow win over Mönchengladbach 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mönchengladbach at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 48% of the ball to St. Pauli's 52%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.81 to 0.77 — on chances, Mönchengladbach could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Mönchengladbach and 1.17 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli?

Mönchengladbach 1-2 St. Pauli in the Germany - DFB Cup on 02/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 45%, draw 27%, St. Pauli 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mönchengladbach) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mönchengladbach) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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