Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 2 Dec 2025

📅02/12/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
34%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.55
2-3 Goals
36%
1.91
4-5 Goals
29%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.31
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
18%
4.65
X/2
12%
8.9
X/X
9%
5.95
2/1
7%
20.7
2/2
15%
6.27
2/X
5%
14.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 35.0 — our 7% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.9pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.9pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+9.8pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.2pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
1.12/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/0.92
+48% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
413 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
16.0 Crosses 1.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
369 Passes 470
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
11.05.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
10.01.2025 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
21.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
29.01.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
0-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.32 xG 0.38
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 0
462 Passes 347
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
47 Box Touches 10
45 Crosses 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past Borussia Dortmund 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 58% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 42%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.32 to 0.38 — the balance of chances actually favoured Borussia Dortmund.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - DFB Cup on 02/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 47%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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