Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.62
2-3 Goals
43%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.69
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.0
X/1
10%
6.29
X/2
9%
6.15
X/X
9%
5.37
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
17%
3.56
2/X
7%
12.0
Value flag · 1/X at 12.0 — our 12% vs market 5.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.5pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -11%
1.68/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.99
+29% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -29%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 446 · 83%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
19.9 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.68 xG 1.05
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
443 Passes 371
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
10.01.2025 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
21.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
29.01.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
06.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.82 xG 1.13
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
546 Passes 291
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund squeezed past Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Borussia Dortmund found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 63% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 37%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 0.82 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.83 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 39%, draw 28%, Borussia Dortmund 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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