Bayern Münih 3-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
83%
1.16
Draw
11%
7.78
Away
6%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
3.17
Over 2.5
68%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
7.77
2-3 Goals
37%
2.31
4-5 Goals
28%
2.37
6+ Goals
19%
4.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
51%
1.22
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
4%
32.0
X/1
17%
4.05
X/2
2%
35.0
X/X
4%
13.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
23.1
2/2
2%
32.5
2/X
3%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 15% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
83%
Home Win
82%
+0.4pp
11%
Draw
10%
+0.7pp
6%
Away Win
7%
-1.1pp
32%
Under 2.5
28%
+3.9pp
68%
Over 2.5
72%
-3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +23%
2.80/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.91
+42% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +93% / +69%
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
564 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
41.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
19.8 Crosses 10.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
5W-1D-0L
AWAY St. Pauli
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.19 xG 0.53
70% Ball Possession 30%
18 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
683 Passes 238
90% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2025 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-2 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
09.11.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
07.05.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-8 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
11.12.2010 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
09.09.2006 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
12.04.2006 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
3-1
AWAY St. Pauli
2.30 xG 0.52
80% Ball Possession 20%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
924 Passes 176
93% Pass Accuracy 73%
41 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih beat St. Pauli 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 83%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (68%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 80% of the ball to St. Pauli's 20%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.30 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Bayern Münih and 0.67 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs St. Pauli?

Bayern Münih 3-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 83%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 83%, draw 11%, St. Pauli 6%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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