Bayern Münih vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bayern Münih v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals
Bayern Münih vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-8
HT 0-2
Bayern Münih
AL1
3-0
HT 1-0
St. Pauli
AL1
1-1
HT 1-0
Bayern Münih
AFK
0-3
HT 0-1
Bayern Münih
AFK
2-1
HT 2-0
Bayern Münih
AL1
Bayern Münih 3-2 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics
Bayern Münih edged past St. Pauli 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Bayern Münih had 66% of the ball to St. Pauli's 34%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 3.57 to 0.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayern Münih's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Bayern Münih and 0.67 for St. Pauli.
What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs St. Pauli?
Bayern Münih 3-2 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs St. Pauli?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 68%, draw 18%, St. Pauli 15%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.