Holstein Kiel 0-3 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.23
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.49
1/2
6%
22.9
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
10%
6.9
X/2
16%
5.32
X/X
12%
5.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
2/2
20%
3.01
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.07/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.65
+13% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
13.3 Crosses 14.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.79
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
275 Passes 415
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-1 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1
29.04.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 2-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
27.11.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
0-3
AWAY Werder Bremen
0.49 xG 1.77
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
389 Passes 279
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen swept aside Holstein Kiel 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Werder Bremen as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 55% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 45%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.49 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.67 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen?

Holstein Kiel 0-3 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 34%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 42%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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