Mönchengladbach 1-0 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.21
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.65
6+ Goals
15%
6.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.95
1/2
6%
22.9
1/X
9%
12.0
X/1
14%
6.75
X/2
12%
5.93
X/X
10%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
18%
3.22
2/X
6%
11.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+4.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-9.5pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -6%
1.38/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.49
+5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 81%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
17.4 Crosses 18.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
2W-1D-3L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.39 xG 1.31
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
353 Passes 475
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
17.02.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
23.09.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
11.03.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
17.09.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-0 HT 2-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
02.05.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-1 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
1-0
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.82 xG 1.28
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
250 Passes 448
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 43
18 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mönchengladbach edged past RB Leipzig 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Mönchengladbach made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 40% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 60%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 1.82 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mönchengladbach and 1.17 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?

Mönchengladbach 1-0 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 40%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mönchengladbach) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mönchengladbach) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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