Bournemouth vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities
Bournemouth v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Bournemouth 2-3 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal edged past Bournemouth 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
By the numbers, Bournemouth had 43% of the ball to Arsenal's 57%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.36 to 1.13.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bournemouth and 2.00 for Arsenal.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Result & Final Score
Bournemouth 2 - 3 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 17%, draw 21%, Arsenal 62%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.