ACR Messina 3-2 Virtus Francavilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.45
Over 2.5
40%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.06
2-3 Goals
45%
1.82
4-5 Goals
13%
6.16
6+ Goals
6%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.7pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
65%
-4.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
35%
+4.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.6pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Virtus Francavilla EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -26%
0.83/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.31
-38% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ACR Messina
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 1-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
07.01.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 2-1 HT 1-0 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla İTC
11.09.2022 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 1-0 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
23.01.2022 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 5-1 HT 3-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
19.09.2021 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ACR Messina
3-2
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
62% Ball Possession 38%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH ACR Messina vs Virtus Francavilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ACR Messina squeezed past Virtus Francavilla 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had ACR Messina as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ACR Messina had 62% of the ball to Virtus Francavilla's 38%, shots finished 6-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Virtus Francavilla led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for ACR Messina and 1.60 for Virtus Francavilla.

What was the final score of ACR Messina vs Virtus Francavilla?

ACR Messina 3-2 Virtus Francavilla in the Italy - Serie C on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ACR Messina vs Virtus Francavilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a ACR Messina win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split ACR Messina 44%, draw 27%, Virtus Francavilla 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ACR Messina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ACR Messina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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