Larne FC 5-0 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Cup, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.2
6+ Goals
8%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 32% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
68%
-13.3pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.2pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+8.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Larne FC EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 16%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-74% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Larne FC
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Glenavon FC
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 4-1 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
30.09.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-4 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
10.02.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 3-0 HT 2-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
02.12.2022 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
20.08.2022 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-2 HT 1-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
08.03.2022 Larne FC Larne FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Larne FC
5-0
AWAY Glenavon FC
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Larne FC vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC swept aside Glenavon FC 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Larne FC as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Larne FC had 51% of the ball to Glenavon FC's 49%, shots finished 9-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Larne FC had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Larne FC and 0.50 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Larne FC vs Glenavon FC?

Larne FC 5-0 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Cup on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Larne FC vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Larne FC 55%, draw 25%, Glenavon FC 21%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Larne FC), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Larne FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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