De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Feb 2025

📅03/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.93
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.02 — our 27% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.18
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.34
X/2
13%
6.43
X/X
15%
5.01
2/1
8%
24.3
2/2
10%
4.24
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.4pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +14%
1.48/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.32
-1% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 74%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
27.5 Crosses 18.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-2D-3L
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.39 xG 1.21
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
331 Passes 240
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 24
28 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.10.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
18.05.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 2-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.05.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-3 HT 1-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
12.01.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 5-3 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.08.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.04.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
1-2
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.75 xG 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
291 Passes 226
69% Pass Accuracy 65%
28 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag nicked a narrow win over De Graafschap 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; ADO Den Haag found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, De Graafschap had 55% of the ball to ADO Den Haag's 45%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.75 to 1.00 — on chances, De Graafschap could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for De Graafschap and 2.00 for ADO Den Haag.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?

De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 39%, draw 30%, ADO Den Haag 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (De Graafschap) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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