Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.51
6+ Goals
7%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 35% vs market 32.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.13
1/2
4%
29.5
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
10%
6.52
X/2
8%
4.57
X/X
15%
4.0
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
3.11
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 46%
+49% / +49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
0.98/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.90
-16% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
352 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
15.0 Crosses 21.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-2
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.43 xG 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 15
0 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
180 Passes 324
60% Pass Accuracy 72%
8 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima nicked a narrow win over Machida Zelvia 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 39% — and on the day Sanfrecce Hiroshima made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 40% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 60%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 0.43 to 1.50.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 31%, draw 30%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
3 Apr 2024
13:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka Analysis →
13:00 Jubilo Iwata vs Albirex Niigata Analysis →
13:00 Sagan Tosu vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →
13:00 Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale Analysis →
13:00 Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →
13:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →