Shelbourne 2-3 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
13.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.23
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.9
X/1
11%
4.23
X/2
10%
9.19
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.5
2/2
13%
7.36
2/X
9%
15.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.5 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shelbourne EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -6%
1.66/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.25
-11% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 66%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
24.0 Crosses 19.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shelbourne
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Dundalk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.70 xG 0.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
339 Passes 282
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-1 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
07.06.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
03.05.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-0 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
29.03.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 2-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
06.10.2023 Shelbourne Shelbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
06.08.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 1-1 HT 1-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shelbourne
2-3
AWAY Dundalk
2.06 xG 1.75
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
416 Passes 194
81% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 31
22 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shelbourne vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundalk edged past Shelbourne 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Shelbourne at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Shelbourne had 63% of the ball to Dundalk's 37%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 2.06 to 1.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shelbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Shelbourne and 0.33 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Shelbourne vs Dundalk?

Shelbourne 2-3 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shelbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Shelbourne 47%, draw 26%, Dundalk 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shelbourne) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shelbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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