RB Leipzig 3-3 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.98
Over 2.5
54%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.38
No
44%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.38
2-3 Goals
40%
2.26
4-5 Goals
24%
2.39
6+ Goals
14%
4.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.87
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
17.65
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
7%
9.5
X/2
13%
4.97
X/X
10%
7.37
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
26%
2.18
2/X
9%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 17.65 — our 10% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
25%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.3pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-4.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
30%
+15.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
70%
-15.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.6pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 57%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -22%
1.07/2.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.30
+44% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -38%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 480 · 84%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.9
18.7 Crosses 17.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.28 xG 1.84
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 Passes 561
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.12.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-1 HT 3-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
24.02.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
30.09.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-2 HT 2-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
12.08.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-3 HT 0-2 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig ALSK
20.05.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-3 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
20.01.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
3-3
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.18 xG 1.62
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
275 Passes 515
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 36
7 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig and Bayern Münih shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 38% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 62%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 1.18 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.83 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Bayern Münih?

RB Leipzig 3-3 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 25%, draw 26%, Bayern Münih 49%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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