Union Berlin 2-2 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
36%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 26% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.57
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
14%
6.65
X/2
15%
5.28
X/X
12%
4.8
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
15%
3.19
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+8.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.2pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.21/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.31
-12% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
332 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
20.4 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.13 xG 0.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
322 Passes 385
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.12.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-1 HT 3-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
16.03.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
28.10.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
27.05.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
25.01.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 1-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
24.04.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
2-2
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.48 xG 1.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
18 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
297 Passes 469
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin and Werder Bremen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 40% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 60%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.48 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Union Berlin and 1.50 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?

Union Berlin 2-2 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 40%, draw 24%, Werder Bremen 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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