Gnistan 2-0 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.24
2-3 Goals
35%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
9.72
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 28% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.95
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
9%
11.3
X/X
11%
6.08
2/1
12%
21.3
2/2
9%
8.89
2/X
5%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-4.2pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.7pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.3pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.55/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.28
-27% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
25.4 Crosses 18.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.33 xG 1.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
330 Passes 320
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.02.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 4-0 HT 3-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
15.09.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
21.08.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-1 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
26.05.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
01.03.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FLK
29.10.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 3-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
2-0
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.27 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
321 Passes 397
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan got the better of IFK Mariehamn 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gnistan as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Gnistan had 46% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 54%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.27 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gnistan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gnistan and 1.00 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?

Gnistan 2-0 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 56%, draw 22%, IFK Mariehamn 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✓ BTTS No
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