Backa Topola 1-2 Kızılyıldız — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.09
Draw
27%
4.49
Away
52%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
13%
X/1
9%
X/2
24%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
17%
+4.7pp
27%
Draw
19%
+7.7pp
52%
Away Win
64%
-12.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.1pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Kızılyıldız EU Bookmakers 69%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +3%
1.33/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/1.26
+22% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -22%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
232 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 477 · 83%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
12.9 Crosses 21.8
4.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Kızılyıldız
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.08 xG 2.38
42% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
264 Passes 373
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-2 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
04.12.2024 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 3-1 HT 2-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
02.05.2024 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 2-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
02.03.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-3 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
01.11.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 1-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
17.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-3 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRBK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-2
AWAY Kızılyıldız
0.35 xG 2.93
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
213 Passes 394
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Kızılyıldız
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kızılyıldız nicked a narrow win over Backa Topola 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kızılyıldız as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Backa Topola had 38% of the ball to Kızılyıldız's 62%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.35 to 2.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kızılyıldız's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kızılyıldız led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Backa Topola and 2.33 for Kızılyıldız.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Kızılyıldız?

Backa Topola 1-2 Kızılyıldız in the Serbia - Super League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Kızılyıldız?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kızılyıldız win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 21%, draw 27%, Kızılyıldız 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kızılyıldız), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kızılyıldız) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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